How to Navigate this Website


Universe of Players


We provide both real-time and historical scoring probabilities for strikers in Europe's top leagues. The Premier League and Bundesliga are available to every user. Upon free registration, a user will be granted further access to: Serie A, La Liga, and Ligue 1.

For a player to qualify, he must meet the following criteria:

  1. He must be characterized as a striker by the German sports magazine Kicker.

  2. He must have made at least one appearance in the season prior to the current one.

Historical Scoring Probabilities


For now, historical scoring probabilities are provided from the fourth gameday of each season onwards. This convention was set during the estimation process of the underlying model, to ensure that the information set about differences in team strength is informative and not just dominated by noise.

Furthermore, (and again: for now) historical scoring probabilities are just available for the latest completed and current season. In future versions we might plan to expand the historical record further into the past.

Scoring Probabilities: Point Estimates & Uncertainties


Every user has access to point estimates of the scoring probabilities (for geeks: the median of the posterior distribution of our Bayesian regression model). Members, who signed up for free, will also be provided with the corresponding 90% uncertainty bands (for the Bayesian geeks: credible region).

Weekly Updates


The website will be updated each Tuesday at around 06:00 a.m. EST, including:

  1. Scoring Probabilities for the upcoming Game Day.

  2. Augmentation of a player's historical record with the results of the last Game Day.

How to read the Real-Time Scoring Probabilities



...

How to read a Player's Profile Page



...


...